Kailash Chand says that Pakistan faces catastrophe after Benazir Bhutto’s assassination

THE assassination of Benazir Bhutto has again pushed Pakistan to a dangerous precipice. Chilling shadows of uncertainty seem to be devouring the flicker of democracy ignited by the return of “the daughter of a heartless history” after some eight years of self-imposed exile. Now the tragedy of her death has become the farce of a potentially disastrous dynastic succession.

Benazir was a woman of enormous strengths and flaws, but managed to maintain a legitimate claim to be Pakistan’s pre-eminent opposition leader and putative national leader. Can her nominated successors, a notoriously corrupt husband and a sheltered 19-year-old son, really qualify to lead a nuclear-armed nation of 165 million people?

Pakistan is at a crossroads. The danger of terrorists, nurtured and sheltered in the country, getting hold of the nuclear weaponry has become real. Bhutto’s murder has eliminated a leader of the masses who could have revived the democratic institutions in Pakistan to stall the downward slide into becoming a “failed state”.
Pakistan was carved out of the Indian sub-continent in 1947 on the basis of the “two nation” concept which envisaged Muslims as a separate nation from Hindus. The dispersal of millions along Hindu-Muslim boundaries, the mayhem and bloodshed and unresolved hostilities have left Pakistan ethnically, politically and religiously divided. It is a country where the only cementing force is antipathy towards India.

The living standards of a large majority of the Pakistani population are among the worst on the planet. About two-thirds of the population survives on less than £1 a day. Nearly 40 per cent of the country’s children are undernourished. Only 44 per cent of all adults can read and only 29 per cent of them are women. Every year, a staggering 135,000 women die during childbirth because of the lack of proper medical facilities.

The current regime spends only 0.7 per cent of Pakistan’s gross domestic product on health, which is not even enough to pay the salaries of the personnel employed in the neglected state health sector.

Only 22 per cent of population have access to clean drinking water and only about 15 per cent have sanitation facilities. Seventy per cent of ailments are diseases that are a consequence of poverty. Pakistan’s rates of infant mortality are some of the highest in the world. More than 77 per of the population have to take recourse to some sort of private health services. The vast majority are forced to seek medication from quacks – unqualified “doctors” who resort to medieval forms of treatment. The mosques, rather than the government, provide what frayed social safety net there is.

Perhaps that is because Pakistan is habitually broke. Barely 1 per cent of the population pays income tax. More than half of the central budget is used to maintain the armed forces and service repayment of the national debt. Pakistan’s future, at 60, looks rather grim.

During the six decades of its existence, Pakistan has not been able to evolve a sustainable, civilised mechanism of governance. The cult of violence and rule by the mighty are the norm. This has elevated the country’s armed forces to an unassailable position of perpetual power.

Once the top brass tasted blood, there was no going back, because most of them are living in luxury while enjoying power and pelf.

The army – currently some 500,000 strong – is commonly thought to be Pakistan’s elite institution. The military dominates civilian affairs in more ways than one. Its various “welfare trusts” are among the nation’s largest industrial conglomerates.

The Fauji (Army) Foundation has substantial ventures in gas fields, sugar mills, a fertiliser plant, an oil terminal and an overseas employment service.

Pakistan’s first flirting with a modicum of parliamentary democracy was initiated by Benazir’s father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, way back in 1973. But before he could make any significant headway, he was hanged by General Zia. The travesty of gory Pakistani polity is best described in the words of Benazir herself.

A few days before her death, she said: ”I have buried a father killed at age 50 and two brothers killed at the prime of their lives. I raised my children as a single mother when my husband was arrested and held for eight years without a conviction – a hostage to my political career.”

Both Benazir Bhutto and Mian Nawaz were duly elected prime ministers who were both sacked by autocratic presidents. The current president, Pervez Musharraf, appears to be playing ball as directed by the United States, but at a price. The financial aid and international acceptance (for which read American approval) he has been able to garner are simply down to his dubious assurances about containing the activities of the Taliban and introducing democracy – “not according to the Western model but suited to the ethos of this country”.

Only Musharraf knows what he actually means by this. But the imposition of emergency, sacking of the top judiciary of his country and third-degree treatment meted out to members of the legal profession do not cover him with glory.

As if all this was not enough, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the subsequent blatant falsehoods to cover up who was responsible have laid bare the dirty power game.

Years ago, the US enlisted the support of Pakistan to counter the influence of Russia in Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden and the Taliban were regarded as American friends throughout the 1980s. Liberal funds were made available to them through the conduit of Pakistan.

The CIA and its Pakistani counterpart, ISI, were thick as thieves. Terrorism was not a dirty word until the September 11 attacks shook the US.

Musharraf usurped power in 1999 by overthrowing Nawaz Sharif in a bloodless coup. Ever since, he has adroitly blackmailed the US with his promises of containing the Pakistani jihadis, even though the terror outfits in Pakistan continue to thrive. If anything, they are stronger today, having shifted base to inaccessible tribal areas in the western part of the country.

Before September 11, the jihadis were used to bleed India. But when their activities expanded to the US and other parts of the world, the international community woke up to put pressure on the Pakistani authorities.

However, after Afghanistan, Pakistan remains an epicentre of terrorism. Terrorists have even made attempts on Musharraf’s life. Several recent events indicate that he is not in control of the situation in Pakistan. And the army may not care to burn its fingers in this inferno.

In his address to the nation on January 2, Musharraf admitted political and ethnic overtones in the widespread violence that enveloped Pakistan following Benazir’s assassination.

That he agreed to hand over the investigations of the crime to Scotland Yard is a clear acceptance of the lack of credibility of his own investigative machinery.
The tragic state of Pakistan is largely the fault of the formidable army and the omnipresent ISI, which have pursued furtive alliances with many of the country’s most violent Islamic extremists. The Pashtun tribes are a rich breeding source for jihadi elements. Pakistan’s economy is in a shambles and its society is in disarray.

Pakistan’s elections are now scheduled for February 18. Even if they go ahead, the focus will be on a dynasty, not democracy.

Bhutto’s death underlines the betrayal of liberalism, democracy and human rights. The Pakistan People’s Party has been reduced to little more than the personal property of the Bhutto family.

The elections are unlikely to lead to the stability, democracy and rule of law so desired and needed by Pakistan and its people. The country stands on the brink of an avoidable disaster – one which threatens to shake the whole world.

Kailash Chand is a GP based in Manchester